Information about judgemental forecasting and our forecasting project in the Czech Republic

FORPOL was a joint project between Czech Priorities and Metaculus. It was funded by the Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund. It aimed to increase our understanding of practical ways on how to improve public policy-making with the use of judgemental forecasting. Based on the results of the tournament we have assembled a team of expert forecasters (called OPT). You can learn about how the team operate below or on its own website (in 🇨🇿 only).

The main objective of the FORPOL (Forecasting for Policy) project was to provide public institutions with useful predictions on relevant societal topics. We currently operate forecasting tools in the Czech republic, but are interested in establishing international cooperations as well. FORPOL was also an opportunity for (currently only czech speaking) participants to improve their forecasting skills.

We are using judgmental forecasting, a method for obtaining estimates of future scenarios based on probabilistic reasoning and aggregation of a large number of qualified forecasters. Judgmental forecasting is especially useful for predictions on novel issues or where there is insufficient data (e.g., societal impacts of a pandemic, new technologies, etc.). It is also used on highly complex topics such as; geopolitics, crisis response and other social challenges. 

Judgemental forecasting is based on quantitative data but also takes into account qualitative analysis. It thus presents the possibility of assessing the situation on the basis of currently available information. 

A key phenomenon embedded within the judgmental forecasting method is collective intelligence - instead of relying on the judgment of just one expert it estimates the outcome as the result of a group of forecasters aggregated predictions. This way of forecasting minimizes information noise and bias and, at the same time, maximizes the volume of information on which the aggregated forecasts are based.